Forecasting nuclear proliferation/Simulating nuclear proliferation

Most of the statistical computations summarized in the Wikiversity article on "Forecasting nuclear proliferation" can be replicated by "knitting" the R Markdown code in this vignette in.

Process

 * 1) Open an instance of .  If you don't already have it installed, you can go to "RStudio Cloud" and click "get started for free" (at least as of 2020-10-24).  Or you can download and install free and open-source versions of it and R on your local computer.  R is available from The Comprehensive R Archive Network.  For RStudio, go to its website > Products (top center) > RStudio > "RStudio Desktop" > "Open Source Edition" > "Download RStudio Desktop".
 * 2) Start RStudio.  Then File > "New File" > "R Markdown..." > Title:  "Modeling and simulating nuclear proliferation" > "Default Output Format: PDF" > OK.  [NOTE:  The default "Default Output Format" is HTML.  When this vignette was developed, the figure references would not work with HTML but would with PDF.]
 * 3) Replace the default code in this new RMarkdown vignette on "Modeling and simulating nuclear proliferation" with the text from the section below entitled, 'RMarkdown vignette on "Modeling and simulating nuclear proliferation"'.
 * 4) Save as, e.g., "FcstgNucProlif.Rmd" (with a *.Rmd extension).
 * 5) File > "New File" > "Text File".
 * 6) Copy the text from the section below entitled "nuc-references.bib" into this new empty text file.
 * 7) Save as "nuc-references.bib".
 * 8) Click the "Knit" icon;  see the companion image.  Or read the text and run the code chunks one at a time manually.  The latter makes it relatively easy to look at intermediate computations carefully and experiment with changing things in different ways.

Development of this vignette
This vignette evolved over time and was used to produce most of the figures in the main article on "Forecasting nuclear proliferation" as well as slides for companion presentations. Some were written as svg files. Others were png. These image files were developed in in different formats at different times for different purposes.