Motivation and emotion/Book/2023/Conspiracy theory motivation

Overview
 Deep within the unseen retreats of the world's technological elite, a frightening conspiracy unfolds. It is alleged that an underground organisation known as "PsyKontrol" has developed a mind-altering technology that transcends the boundaries of imagination. Operating in shadows, they claim to possess the power to control thoughts, emotions, and even alter reality itself.

Imagine a world where historical events, scientific achievements, and political actions are not what they seem. In this world, ordinary occurrences are shrouded in secrecy, and clandestine forces manipulate global affairs behind the scenes. Welcome to the realm of conspiracy theories, an intriguing and often bewildering landscape that captivates the minds of millions.

Conspiracy theories have permeated human history, offering alternative explanations for significant events, often attributing them to covert actions by powerful entities. From the belief in chemtrails (see Figure 1) to elaborate government cover-ups, to rigged elections, these theories have sparked heated debates, fractured public opinion, and even influenced political landscapes. But the burning question remains: "What motivates people to believe in conspiracy theories?"

The prevalence of conspiracy theories in the digital age poses a significant societal challenge (Zeng et al., 2022). Misinformation, propagated through online platforms and echo chambers, can erode trust in institutions, undermine social cohesion, and impact public decision-making. As a result, understanding the underlying motivations driving conspiracy beliefs is critical to addressing the spread of misinformation and promoting rational discourse.

This chapter embarks on a journey to unravel the complex web of conspiracy theory (CT) motivation. Drawing upon insights from psychological science, sociology, and individual characteristics, it will explore the psychological needs, cognitive biases, and societal influences that drive individuals to embrace conspiracy theories. This chapter explores the multifaceted reasons behind the allure of this alternative narrative.

Focus questions:
 * How do psychological needs and biases fuel belief in conspiracy theories?
 * How do individual characteristics and critical thinking impact susceptibility to conspiracy theories?
 * What role does media influence and group dynamics play in shaping conspiracy beliefs?
 * How does the political climate impact conspiracy theory belief and alignment?

Prevalence of conspiracy theories
In recent years, research on conspiracy theories has surged (Sutton & Douglas, 2020). A 2020 survey conducted by The Guardian in collaboration with the YouGov-Cambridge Globalism Project, gathering 26,000 responses from 25 countries, revealed widespread belief in conspiracy theories. For instance, 18% of Australians questioned the reported fatality rate of COVID-19, while 59% of Nigerians held similar doubts. Beliefs extended to the origin of the virus, with 32% of Australians, 37% of Americans, and 42% of Poles believing it was deliberately created by the Chinese government. Concerns about vaccine secrecy were also prevalent in nearly every surveyed country.

In addition, beliefs encompassed various realms, such as doubting man-made global warming (e.g., 22% in Brazil, Hungary, and Poland) and believing in contact with extraterrestrial life (e.g., 44% of Mexicans). A notable portion of respondents also subscribed to the idea of a global elite running the world (e.g., 33% of Australians, 37% of Americans and Canadians, and over 50% of people from Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey). These findings underscore the widespread prevalence of conspiracy beliefs, often associated with a lack of trust in institutions of power.

The internet and social media, with their global reach, have significantly contributed to the rapid dissemination of conspiracy theories (Bleakley, 2023). While they facilitate information exchange, they can also lead to belief adoption before fact-checking (Bleakley, 2023). However, it's important to acknowledge that conspiracy theories are influenced not only by online platforms but also by psychological, sociological, and cultural factors.

Psychological perspectives
When it comes to unravelling the motivations driving individuals towards conspiracy theories, psychological perspectives provide valuable insights. Through the examination of cognitive biases, the influence of threat perception and uncertainty, and self-determination theory, some of the reasons behind the appeal of conspiracy narratives are revealed, shedding light on how certain cognitive processes and emotional responses fuel belief in such theories.

Cognitive biases
Cognitive biases are patterns in how we think that can make us see things incorrectly or make bad decisions (Korteling & Toet, 2022). These biases can contribute to the belief in conspiracy theories (Cassam, 2023). Perhaps the most prevalent cognitive bias in CT belief is confirmation bias, which is when people tend to seek out information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs while ignoring or dismissing contradictory evidence (Cassam, 2023). People can feel uncomfortable when they encounter conflicting evidence and may ignore or explain it away to hold onto their beliefs (Leman & Cinnirella, 2013). This is called cognitive dissonance. For example, people who are against vaccines might embrace conspiracy theories that suggest vaccines are harmful.

People tend to overestimate the importance of information readily available to them, a cognitive bias known as the availability heuristic. In the age of the internet and social media, conspiracy theories can easily become viral and gain widespread attention (Tuters et al., 2018). When these theories are prominently featured or discussed, individuals may perceive them as more credible and prevalent than they actually are (Bleakley, 2023).



Humans have a natural inclination to identify meaningful patterns, even when they don't exist, known as illusory pattern perception (van-Prooijen et al., 2018). This tendency can lead people to see connections and patterns in unrelated events, contributing to the development of conspiracy theories (van-Prooijen et al., 2018). For example, seeing a series of unrelated events and details as evidence of a sinister plot (e.g.,, thePrincess Diana CT).



The Moon Landing Hoax CT (see Figure 2) is a prominent example of a widely circulated belief that challenges the authenticity of the Apollo moon landings. This theory suggests that the United States faked the moon landings in the late 1960s and early 1970s to win the Space Race against the Soviet Union. Supporters of this conspiracy claim that the moon landings were staged on Earth, with the intent to deceive the world. Confirmation bias fuels this CT as individuals selectively seek, interpret, and recall information that aligns with their doubts about the moon landings, reinforcing their scepticism, such as pointing to the perceived anomalies like the flag appearing not to move or the absence of visible stars in the moon landing photos, while disregarding contrary evidence.

Threat perception and uncertainty


During difficult times like natural disasters, pandemics, or economic crises, people feel more anxious and uncertain (van-Prooijen, 2020). This emotional turmoil has been linked to a greater tendency to believe in conspiracy theories (van-Prooijen, 2020).

Conspiracy theories don't have much evidence, but they provide a simple story and someone to blame. They meet our need to understand what's happening around us (Douglas et al., 2019). They also help us feel more in control, secure, and purposeful after difficult experiences (Douglas et al., 2019).

As an example, endorsing the notion that China intentionally engineered the COVID-19 virus provides individuals with a clear and uncomplicated account of COVID-19's source, reducing uncertainty and anxiety (Šrol et al., 2021). In contrast, the official explanation regarding the origins of COVID-19 might induce feelings of unease and a perceived lack of control. This arises from the recognition that a significant event like the COVID-19 pandemic could originate from the simple transmission of a virus from animals to humans, which seems beyond human control.

Landau et al. (2015) argued that people are strongly motivated to preserve a sense of control in their lives and to perceive the world as a structured place that can be understood. When people feel like they have no control, it can make them anxious. This anxiety can lead them to try to regain control in other ways (Kay et al., 2009). Adopting conspiracy beliefs can be seen as one of these compensatory control efforts aimed at regaining a sense of control over one's environment (Douglas et al., 2019).

Self-determination theory
Self-determination theory (SDT) focuses on human motivation and the factors that drive individuals to engage in certain behaviours or hold specific beliefs (Ryan & Deci, 2000). It suggests that people have innate psychological needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness, and when these needs are satisfied, individuals experience greater motivation and well-being (Ryan & Deci, 2000).

Autonomy. Involves feeling in control of one’s own actions and decisions. When individuals encounter complex and uncertain events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, their need for autonomy may be threatened. Conspiracy theories can offer a sense of control by providing a simplified narrative and someone to blame (Douglas et al., 2019). Believing in a CT can make individuals feel that they have uncovered hidden truths, thereby satisfying their need for autonomy (Douglas et al., 2019).

Competence. SDT emphasises the importance of feeling competent and capable in one's actions. When individuals face situations characterised by uncertainty and ambiguity, such as a major crisis or event, they may experience feelings of incompetence or inadequacy in understanding what is happening. Conspiracy theories often present themselves as alternative explanations that challenge the official narrative (Douglas et al., 2017). Embracing these theories can provide a sense of competence by making individuals feel like they possess unique knowledge and insights that others may lack (Stasielowicz, 2022).

Relatedness. Conspiracy theories can foster a sense of belonging and community among believers. People who share similar conspiracy beliefs may form social networks or online communities, providing a sense of relatedness and connection. This shared identity can be psychologically rewarding, especially when individuals feel alienated or isolated from mainstream society (Douglas et al., 2017).

Test yourself
During crises like pandemics, why are people more prone to embrace conspiracy theories? - They present strong scientific evidence. + They simplify complex events and assign blame. - They promote curiosity and critical thinking. - They align with official narratives.
 * type=""}

Individual characteristics
When we dive into the realm of CT beliefs, individual characteristics play a central role in shaping susceptibility and belief patterns. This section examines the influence of personal traits and the role of education and critical thinking. Understanding how these factors interplay provides valuable insights into why certain individuals are more prone to embracing conspiracy theories.

Personality traits
Certain personality traits, such as high levels of schizotypy and paranoid ideation, tend to be associated with increased vulnerability to conspiracy beliefs, as individuals with these traits may be more prone to perceiving hidden motives and patterns in events (Stasielowicz, 2022). Additionally, individuals with high narcissistic traits may be more inclined to see themselves as uniquely insightful or special in uncovering supposed conspiracies (Stasielowicz, 2022).




 * Schizotypy. Research findings show a moderate positive relationship between schizotypy and conspiracy theories (Stasielowicz, 2022). Symptoms of schizotypy traits include magical thinking, odd beliefs like telepathy, astrology or extra-terrestrial beings visiting Earth.
 * Paranoid ideation. Research outcomes indicate a moderate positive correlation between paranoid ideation and the inclination toward conspiracy thinking (Stasielowicz, 2022). Symptoms encompass a propensity for suspicion and attributing negative intentions to others (Brotherton & Eser, 2015). e.g., the 'new world order' conspiracy.
 * Narcissism. Scholars have uncovered links between narcissism and conspiracy beliefs, highlighting positive associations (Bowes et al., 2020). A narcissistic attribute that could be linked to conspiracy beliefs is grandiosity (Cichocka et al., 2016). People who strongly believe in their own or their group's exceptionalism might be less likely to question the validity of conspiracy theories critically. Individuals with narcissistic tendencies often seek attention, and voicing bold and questionable conspiracy claims can fulfil this attention-seeking desire (Stasielowicz, 2022).

 The Reptilian Conspiracy alleges the existence of shape-shifting reptilian extraterrestrial beings who allegedly control the world's most influential figures and institutions. These reptilian beings are believed to be highly intelligent and malevolent. Believers believe they take on human form to conceal their true nature.

Liam was recently diagnosed with schizotypy. He finds himself drawn to the Reptilian CT due to his inclination toward unconventional and fantastical ideas. His magical thinking and openness to extraordinary beliefs make the theory's claims about shape-shifting reptilian beings controlling the world appear plausible to him. These personality traits predispose Liam to entertain unconventional narratives, leading him to believe in the Reptilian Conspiracy.

Education and critical thinking
Douglas et al. (2016) link higher education to reduced conspiracy belief. Van-Prooijen (2017) supports this finding by showing that people with a high 'cognitive complexity,' who are good at recognising subtle differences in decision-making and judgment, are less likely to believe in conspiracy theories. van-Prooijen’s (2017) findings suggest that individuals with higher levels of education are more likely to possess this ability and tend to consciously think about and reflect upon these subtle details when making decisions and thinking matters through. In other words, education enables people to think more critically and discerningly. Thus, having more education is linked to not accepting overly simple explanations for complex events. Furthermore, Swami and colleagues (2014) discovered that analytical thinking reduces the endorsement of conspiracy theories, while intuitive thinking, heightens belief in such theories.

Group identity and belonging
Research indicates that people's susceptibility to conspiracy theories can be influenced by their social identity and the desire for group belonging (Robertson et al., 2022). Social identity involves individuals strongly identifying with their groups, helping them find a sense of belonging and understanding in a complex world (Tajfel & Turner, 1979). To maintain a positive social identity, people often embrace information that favours their in-group and disparages out-groups (Van-Bavel & Pereira, 2018). They may also actively seek information that restores their group's image when it's threatened (Marchlewska et al., 2019).

Conspiracy theories align with these social identity needs as they often deflect blame away from the in-group, offering unfalsifiable narratives (Bezalel, 2021). When people feel their group's reputation is at risk, these theories can be comforting and help them feel superior (Sternisko et al., 2020). Research also indicates that the desire for group belonging increases belief in conspiracy theories, especially after experiences of social exclusion (Poon et al., 2020). The need to belong and social identity play a big role in driving conspiracy beliefs, alongside other motivations including the need for understanding and a sense of safety and control (Douglas et al., 2017).

Lack of trust in authorities and institutions
Distrust in government, and other institutions can have a significant impact on the adoption of conspiracy theories (Jennings et al., 2021). For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine hesitancy arose from safety concerns and suspicions of ulterior motives (Jennings et al., 2021).

Additionally, people who distrust government institutions may actively seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs (Cassam, 2023). They might be more susceptible to conspiracy theories that align with their scepticism, further reinforcing their vaccine hesitancy.

Furthermore, doubt in government policies, such as vaccine mandates, can lead to resistance and non-compliance (Devine et al., 2020). Some may see these policies as part of a broader conspiracy to control or manipulate the population.

Test yourself
{Social identity involves individuals strongly identifying with their groups, helping them find a sense of belonging and understanding in a complex world. + True - False
 * type=""}

{Research indicates that the desire for group belonging decreases belief in conspiracy theories, especially after experiences of social exclusion. - True + False
 * type=""}

Media influence
The way social media presents conspiracy theories can strongly influence public perception. When social media platforms give undue attention to fringe theories or present them in a sensational way, it can inadvertently lend credibility to baseless claims (Bleakley, 2023). This portrayal often blurs the line between fact and fiction, making it more challenging for the public to discern the truth (Bleakley, 2023).

Social media platforms can either promote or debunk conspiracy theories through the narratives they choose to endorse or refute (Tuters et al., 2018). For instance, in the case of the Pizzagate CT, certain platforms played a significant role in spreading misinformation (Tuters et al., 2018). This highlights the importance of fact-checking in preventing the amplification of false narratives (Marlin-Bennett, 2022).

Political climate
Political actors can exploit and promote conspiracy theories to serve their interests. For example, politicians may use conspiracy theories to rally their base, undermine opponents, or divert attention from pressing issues (Sutton & Douglas, 2020). A well-known example of this is the Birther conspiracy which gained traction during the 2008 Presidential election and alleged that Barack Obama was ineligible for the Presidency on grounds he was not born in America. Year later in 2011, Trump used the birther conspiracy to gain the media's attention and assemble white voters as he considered challenging Obama (Kelley-Romano & Carew, 2019).

Research has shown that individuals who feel marginalised or dissatisfied with the political system may be more prone to adopting conspiracy theories to explain their perceived powerlessness or dissatisfaction (Sutton & Douglas, 2020). This suggests that conspiracy theories can be used to manipulate or exploit existing ideological divisions among people (e.g., Republican vs. Democrat, Christian vs. Muslim, Black vs. White) for various purposes, like for instance getting elected.

Conclusion
Belief in conspiracy theories is motivated by a combination of psychological, social, and cognitive factors. Psychological needs, such as the desire for autonomy, competence, and relatedness, drive individuals to seek explanations that provide a sense of control and understanding, particularly during times of uncertainty and distress (Douglas et al., 2017;2019). Cognitive biases, like confirmation bias and the availability heuristic, lead people to selectively perceive and interpret information that aligns with their pre-existing beliefs, reinforcing their CT convictions (Cassam, 2023). Additionally, personality traits, including schizotypy, paranoid ideation, and narcissism, can make individuals more susceptible to conspiracy beliefs (Stasielowicz, 2022). Social identity and group dynamics also contribute, as people may adopt these theories to strengthen their sense of belonging or to defend their in-group (Robertson et al., 2022). Lastly, the political climate further amplifies CT adoption, with political actors leveraging these beliefs for personal gain (Kelley-Romano & Carew, 2019). In conclusion, understanding these complex drivers of belief in conspiracy theories is crucial for devising strategies to combat their influence on individuals and society.