TESOL/Probability

"What is a 30% chance in English?"

English provides many ways to express different levels of probability, or chance. This is only about the objective chances of something happening, not the speaker's expectation, bias, or belief about it happening. For more information on that, see Belief in English.

Note that likely is usually an adjective even though it ends in -ly.

Quiz
{It will - rain. (80%) + probably - probable - bound to - certainly not
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{That person - be the president. (0%) - might - can - certainty + can't
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{It's - that the trains will stop tomorrow. (30%) - impossible - needn't + unlikely - off chance
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{Winning would be a - with this low score. (10%) + long shot - certainty - sure thing - no way
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{There's - you can get me to come to your birthday party. (0%) - almost certain - might be - possible + no way
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