User:Charles Jeffrey Danoff/How-to Build an NBA Dynasty Notes

inspiration for the potential of this work comes from Bill James's early Baseball Abstracts.

Overview
This document is an attempt to collect my thoughts (and hopefully those of many others) on the answer to this question:


 * How do you build a NBA Dynasty?

In October 2010 as part of my work with the Peer to Peer University (P2PU) Fall 2010 Course DIY Math I wrote a post outlining this research, its background and where I might want to go next.


 * Indented line

Roster Forecasting
User:Charles Jeffrey Danoff/How-to Build an NBA Dynasty Notes/Roster Forecasting

Relevant Ideas

 * Brady said a lot of organizations do not have the competetive stamina the Patriots do, they want 'Victory Monday' off following a win, they don't want to do 2 hour practices on Friday, the patriots don't take any days off. That's what Matt Patricia is trying to do in Detroit, build up those calluses so at times like this (in 4th quarter) it's easy. - Parahprased from Al Micheals and Cris Collinsworth Sunday night broadcast of Pats vs Lions game -- Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 02:57, 24 September 2018 (UTC)
 * Ken Dryden said part of reason for Canadiens continued championships was 'conspiracy of expectations' -- Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 02:57, 24 September 2018 (UTC)
 * Kelly was asked how the Eagles' offense could be better without Jackson on the team, and he said, "I don't think our offense has ever been predicated on one player. We used three quarterbacks last year. We used multiple running backs. Our tight ends are integral to what we do. I think we have an outstanding offensive line. It's never been about just one guy. It's why I think we have diversity" on offense, he added. "I mean, we were first in rushing and I think ninth in passing. I think there is balance in terms of how we do things. You want great players at every position, and I think that's what we're always striving for in terms of where we can put people into position. It's never been predicated on just one guy, because if it is, if he's out for a water break or hurt for an extended period of time, then you're going to be in trouble." via http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10675583/chip-kelly-noncommittal-desean-jackson-future-philadelphia-eagles --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 16:01, 26 March 2014 (UTC)
 * http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bulls/post/_/id/17509/bulls-building-winning-program?ex_cid=espnapi_public Bulls building winning program February, 2, 2014 12:00PM CT By Nick Friedell ""I think the successful teams in the pros, they run a year-round program," Thibodeau said before Saturday's game against the New Orleans Pelicans. "So from that standpoint I think it's very similar to the top college programs. They're year-round programs. I don't think it's any one particular thing that you do, I think it's how you do everything. It's how you approach things."  ""It's not if you trap the pick-and-roll, or you force the pick-and-roll to the baseline, or you blitz and catch and shoot," Thibodeau said. "It's how you conduct your business. What you expect from your players, the professionalism, how you approach each and every day. To put everything you have into it, to play for the team. To put the team first. When you look at the teams that have been able to build over a period of time, they have those characteristics." " --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 06:32, 3 February 2014 (UTC)
 * when you have great players, you need to have others who will accept not getting shots and focus on doing the dirty work ... I don't know if Pierce and Garnett will do the dirty work - Charles Barkley before 12 Dec 2013 Nets vs. Clippers game on TNT --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 09:36, 13 December 2013 (UTC)
 * In the NBA it's more about philosophy: what do I do in a 2 on 1; when do I shoot; when do I pass? Because you don't have time with the 24 second shot clock to call plays. In college with the longer shotclock you can run plays, but in the NBA you need to have guys who understand the team philosophy and can just act with the shot clock winding down. Kenny Smith on (21 Nov 2013; following Bulls v Nuggets) Inside the NBA --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 06:35, 22 November 2013 (UTC)
 * Toronto Raptors GM Masai Ujiri taking his job one step at a time by Bruce Arthur --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 06:59, 2 November 2013 (UTC)
 * What are the odds you can win a title without superstars?“The chances are, for me, they’re slim,” Ujiri says. “I totally agree that, yes, you have to have one or a couple of those guys, but how do you create it where — I can’t come into Toronto or come into Denver and give the excuse that, ‘Hey, I can’t get any of those guys.’ “So I have to create the environment here. I have to create that environment. It starts with the young players, it starts with the culture you create there, it starts with drafting well. You bring those players, and you attract those players.”


 * Charlotte Bobcats owner Michael Jordan says he's learned to be quicker in admitting mistakes by Rick Bonnell
 * -- Jordan on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: “He is a hard-working kid. He’s learning on the run. It’s not that he doesn’t have talent. But it’s hard to learn in this (NBA) culture because there are so many games. (Bismack) Biyombo is the same way.”
 * -- He says the biggest thing he’s learned as an owner is to be quicker to admit and correct mistakes. He mentioned the one-season tenure of Mike Dunlap as coach as an example. “I liked Mike, I absolutely did. I said I could have played for him. But that’s not today’s kid. The difference between Steve (Clifford) and Mike is the kids articulate what (Clifford) is saying.”


 * Sports/Economics --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 19:32, 27 September 2013 (UTC)
 * http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/62298/whats-up-with-the-milwaukee-bucks
 * http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/62334/economists-vs-tanking
 * http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40055/does-tanking-even-work
 * http://www.suu.edu/faculty/berri/RottenbergJPE1956.pdf
 * http://web.archive.org/web/20100827184656/http://www.rodneyfort.com/index.htm
 * http://www.pistonpowered.com/2013/09/pistons-rank-last-in-projected-value-of-future-draft-picks/
 * A young player will be more likely to improve if surrounded by better veterans. Could go the other way, where a player's path to playing time is blocked so he does not develop. Overall more likely a 2 players of equivalent talent, one given keys to playing time, other surrounded by better veterans and forced to earn playing time will be better. ... Prove this statistically? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 04:26, 16 September 2013 (UTC)
 * "In terms of the Titans, the onus was probably on them to realize that Johnson might struggle to reach these heights again going forward. They re-signed Johnson, who was holding out at the time, to a four-year contract extension before the 2011 season, which was a full year after his monster campaign. General manager Ruston Webster is admittedly not a numbers guy, and it's not always important for a general manager to be in tune with the numbers, but this was a case where understanding outliers and outlier seasons would have saved the Titans a bunch of money. There's no way they or anybody else would have handed Johnson this contract if they had a second chance. That understanding of outliers isn't a Titans-only issue or even a running back–only problem. It's about mistaking one year of performance as more meaningful than it should be. Statistics reflect performance and help identify the outliers in this context, but having big numbers isn't necessary to join this conversation, to which Dallas's massive contract for left tackle turned right turnstile Doug Free can attest. ... And in terms of Johnson, it's about properly calibrating our expectations. ... That we still wait for Johnson to hit his prior strides speaks to our human nature and the way we interpret growth in young athletes. The reality is that when we expect some players to be hitting their stride and beginning a steady growth process, they might actually be peaking" http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9572848/bill-barnwell-looks-numbers-see-chris-johnson-return-record-setting-ways --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 22:49, 17 August 2013 (UTC)
 * "Not about the stars that are out, just becomes about next guy doing his job." - Steve Kerr / "This series is going to be about who imposes their will upon whom and they definitely did that tonight. No question." - Eric Spoelstra / "All playoff games have challenges ... Question is how quickly can you adapt to whatever challenge is in front of you." - Tom Thibodeau (all following Chicago Bulls game 1 victory over Miami Heat in Easter Conference Seminals 2013) --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 03:27, 7 May 2013 (UTC)
 * from Bill Simmons' overpaid NBA contracts article:"4. Eric Gordon: four years, $58.4 million His missed games starting with his rookie year in 2008: 4, 20, 26, 57, 37 (and counting). You'd have to be doing drugs to deal for that monstrosity of a contract; I'd need to see one full healthy season from him before I considered it. Could the Chris Paul trade have worked out any worse for New Orleans? They ended up with a possible lemon (Gordon), a few months of Chris Kaman (long gone), a year and a half of Al-Farouq Aminu (leaving after this season), and a lottery pick they turned into Austin Rivers (who generated some 'historically bad' buzz over the holidays before breaking his hand last week). That's Reason No. 479 why you should ALWAYS swap a bunch of promising young guys, draft picks and whatever else for a Guaranteed Sure Thing, whether it's real sports or fantasy sports. If you're turning quarters and dimes into a dollar, you do it. And you do it without blinking." --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 05:44, 11 March 2013 (UTC)
 * From/inspired by Sloan conference Loss How the NBA’s love for advanced stats has slowed our understanding of the game via Katie Baker's recap ... hockey analysis @ the conference --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 06:15, 8 March 2013 (UTC)
 * advancedballstats.com ---> Hubie & Mike Tirico discussing how advanced stats have integrated NBA 3 Mar 2013 Clippers vs OKC telecast -> Hubie: Need to make it so everyone in organization understands them, incl. players --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 06:44, 4 March 2013 (UTC)

* Basketball color analyst Bill Raftery carries a stack of DVDs in his briefcase wherever he goes. * It can take Mr. Raftery several hours to get through a single, 40-minute college basketball game. His fingers are constantly on the rewind and fast-forward buttons so he can make sure his diagrams match the plays he is watching. * During games Mr. Raftery keeps a notebook open to a page where he has written each player's season average for minutes played, rebounds, assists, points, three-pointers, field goal percentage, steals and blocks. Writing down the numbers himself helps him commit them to memory.
 * "they're the gold standard. it's a proven system and hopefully we're on that track. we like to think we are, but you have to do it year after year." - Tom Thibodeau prior to his team's 11 Feb 2013 loss to a Spurs team w/o Duncan, Ginobli & Parker ... Spurs system embarassed the bulls on that night. --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 06:34, 12 February 2013 (UTC)
 * "The most important thing is to know what your job is. The next is to do your job. But you can’t do your job if you don’t know what it is. So it’s important for everyone to learn and know multiple positions." - via my Dad http://blogs.bulls.com/2013/01/bulls-stop-bucks-here-in-milwaukee/ --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 23:01, 2 February 2013 (UTC)
 * http://hoopshype.com/articles/narducci/memphis-committed-to-analytics wonderful article on the history, limits of and benefits from using statistical analysis in the NBA --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (discuss • contribs) 00:48, 1 February 2013 (UTC)
 * "That's the thing about the NBA. The better the team, the more you have to do your homework, and we're prepared to do that." - Kobe on Lakers' upcoming game w/Heat this week, following his team's win over Bucks --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 06:37, 16 January 2013 (UTC)
 * Helpful GM Links (sidenote, impressive how many years apart Krause won his NBA Executive awards + how many brother/people with last name who have been NBA GMs not including Billy King & Billy Knight). --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 06:55, 14 January 2013 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia Template of Current NBA GMs http://thissongissick.com/blog/2013/aylen-bootleg-pack-2013-bootleg-mashup-download/#more-22138
 * http://www.basketball-reference.com/executives/
 * http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/kelly_dwyer/06/25/gm.rankings/index.html
 * http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/The-top-10-NBA-general-managers-of-the-last-deca;_ylt=AnDtXIkjx2yjECLM8Y38YSy8vLYF?urn=nba,191489
 * Van Gundy commenting on coaches being fired when teams go bad ... and that person picking the players is most important in organization because they decide the talent and character of the players. (during Lakers vs. OKC on 11 Jan 2013) --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 06:08, 12 January 2013 (UTC)
 * In terms of who would win in a series Kenny Smith said "who can minimize their mistakes ... all teams have them" ... later in a discussion where Shaq asked Charles to clarify what makes somebody a great player Chuck said "making those around you better ... some guys are floaters, if they don't start well they'll float through the game, so I'd make sure to get them going early, that way they'd play better defense, better offense" following Clippers vs Celtics 27 Dec. '12 matchup --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 07:00, 28 December 2012 (UTC)
 * "If you have depth it takes longer to develop chemistry." Nuggets/Grizzlies ESPN broadcast 14 Dec 2012 -- Charlie Danoff via 108.200.241.51 04:08, 15 December 2012 (UTC)
 * On MNF Gruden commended Belicheck saying all of his players are versatile, able to adjust to what the opponent brings. Additionally he does an insane amount of research finding undrafted players to play roles on his team, including, according to Gruden, a Ohio State rugby player whose doing special teams. --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 03:47, 11 December 2012 (UTC)
 * Pat Riley "Disease of more (money, shots, etc.) that comes from winning a champtionship. Via David Aldrich --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 23:13, 8 December 2012 (UTC)
 * Create a GM index, comparing the Winshares of a player relative to his draft class. Drafted number 17, win shares are number 12 in his class, so GM gets a +5 or something. Also include wins, playoff wins and how guys have done after they've been acquired in a trade ... have like a 10 year window for evaluation --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 20:26, 8 December 2012 (UTC)
 * Kobe on leadership, via Facebook https://www.facebook.com/Kobe/posts/10151211862620419
 * "Sometimes you must prioritize the success of the team ahead of how your own image is perceived. The ability to elevate those around you is more than simply sharing the ball or making teammates feel a certain level of comfort. It's pushing them to find their inner beast, even if they end up resenting you for it at the time. ... I'd rather be perceived as a winner than a good teammate. I wish they both went hand in hand all the time but that's just not reality." --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 20:26, 8 December 2012 (UTC)
 * Bill Simmons interviewing Bill Russell and commenting on Kobe,
 * "But that would have failed unless everyone embraced their role, and that's the thing — everyone has to have a role." from Russell about working with teammates
 * Top players of all time "That list currently looks like this: Jordan, then Russell, then Kareem, then Magic/Bird, then Wilt, then Kobe/Duncan (or Duncan/Kobe), then West/Oscar, then Hakeem/Shaq/Moses. With LeBron lurking in there somewhere. We just don't know where yet." from http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8724362/the-kobe-question --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 20:26, 8 December 2012 (UTC)
 * Bill Simmons on dynasties "In the NBA's seven-decade history, we only witnessed four true dynasties: Russell's Celtics (13 years, 11 titles), Jordan's Bulls (eight years, six titles), Magic's Lakers (12 years, nine Finals appearances, five titles)2 and Mikan's Lakers (six years, five titles)" http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8486795/the-harden-dilemma --Charles Jeffrey Danoff (talk) 12:03, 12 October 2012 (UTC)
 * 22 Feb 2012 Tom Thibodeau news conference said something to this effect: "You play 66 games and then hopefully you make the playoffs. Once there whomever's healthiest and playing the best will win. I don't think you want to approach it as 'getting through something' because its not the goal, whatever you're going through, you want to keep the ultimate goal in mind." --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 03:37, 23 February 2012 (UTC)
 * "The day of the trade deadline was good. I did what I always do. Worked out, did some rehab… You can’t control what’s going to happen so you have to do what you have to do. Talking to your agent is not going to change anything." - Caron Butler from a June 2011 blog post by him.
 * "I probably look at this more simplistic than you want. It doesn't matter whether you're a former player or you come up through the video room, whether you come from college. You have to earn that trust from NBA players every day. It doesn't stop unless, of course, you win 10 rings. But even at that point, you have to prove that there's competency, there's a work ethic, there's a plan, there's an organization to your thoughts. Then, at some point, they believe you can help them achieve what they want to achieve." " - Erick Spoelstra from a June 2011 ESPN.com story on him.
 * Yin to Spoelestra's work-ethic Yang?
 * On Inside the NBA tonight Charles said "Every great team needs a 'dude' and a 'crazy guy'". (e.g. 2011 Playoffs Mavericks have Dirk & DeShaun Stevenson; LA has Kobe & Ron Artest) Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:46, 3 May 2011 (UTC)
 * NBA dynasty ... its about making moves to give yourself a possibility to be great (thus acquiring great players?) --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 17:14, 10 April 2011 (UTC)
 * i was thinking, while re-building is it more important to accumulate talent (e.g. krause w/pre rebuilding bulls) or to play solid basketball every year (jazz post stockton/malone) ... need both, but maybe better to focus on always playing good basketball on some level and trying to make playoffs regardless of personnell (to degrees, saving cap space) than just getting as many good young players at 1 time? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 01:09, 28 March 2011 (UTC)
 * for some players injuries can be big problems vs. others whose "best ability is availability" from jeff van gundy (he said he heard it from nfl live) on por vs. oakland 27 mar 2011 game --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 00:16, 28 March 2011 (UTC)
 * Bill Simmons, "Basketball is relatively simple. Teams win championships conventionally (an alpha dog superstar, an accomplished sidekick, a third elite player, than five or six role players) and unconventionally (three or four elite starters who complement each other, then four or five role players), but never radically. The Heat are thinking radically, even if it might not seem like it. They believe two alpha dog superstars -- both perimeter players, both creators who need the ball in their hands, both franchise players who developed particular habits carrying inferior teammates these past seven years -- can reinvent themselves as co-CEOs of a basketball team." from LeBron and Wade: Can it work? 29 Oct 2010
 * Beckley Mason, "The best NBA coaches have a track record of enhancing their players’ awareness. Phil Jackson’s Zen philosophy of being “in the moment” is really about being fully cognizant of teammates and opponents. In Utah, Jerry Sloan’s persistent use of the flex offense has the interesting effect of increasing his team’s collective awareness level. Because they devote so much energy and practice time to one offense, Jazz players are intensely aware of the near infinite permutations of each set, and are focused on reading and reacting. With an internalized, cohesive offensive strategy, Jazz players are able to consistently rise above offensive expectations. See, being aware isn’t just for the greats, it’s also how bad players become average and mediocre players become Kevin Martins. In short, it’s how a player maximizes his potential." from On Awareness: The Intangible Skill That Makes All The Difference November 19th, 2010
 * must a dynasty necessarily include something new, that couldn't be predicted by a mathematical equation. like a new pop hit needs to have something fresh to catch that is inspired by what came b4, but also not able to be predicted. e.g. jordan being first 2-guard led dynasty. \
 * godel's theorum needs to fit into this analysis
 * WSJ article about the amount of scouting/research a color analyst (Bill Raftery) does to prepare for games (alternative link)
 * Steve Young commented about the Packers following their Super Bowl 45 victory that they had a self-policing lockeroom. I think that's a really important part of dynasties, players can't rely on coaches or management to police them and make sure they toe the line, they have to do it themselves and hold eachother accountable. Maybe.
 * Is an effective measure of a "truly great player" (a true "1" in terms of a leader, not the point guard position) number of all star games started?
 * Announcer (Thurl Bailey?) from 28 Feb 2011 Celtics vs. Jazz game on NBA TV said that the Celtics's greatest strength is their mix of young and old players ... another announcer added how some NBA teams have problems b/c they have too many of the same kind of player --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:53, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
 * Tom Thibodeau after 28 Feb game vs. Wizards ... every team in NBA is good & poor records usually result of scheduling/injuries/etc ... so if you don't prepare for the game the right way you could trip --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:53, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
 * do a GM power ranking? adjusted periodically for recent transactions/results? ... include hoops analyst's gm reports? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:57, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
 * measure shooters by the 40-50-90 "magic #" http://www.thedaily.com/page/2010/11/07/030211-sports-nash-1-4/ --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 20:39, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
 * Ben Golliver "Walk like a GM, talk like a GM" March 10, 2011 @ 6:29 pm "We have looked at three thoughts. First, that the NBA trade market is not nearly as efficient as it should be, but that analytics may help improve that. Second, that the short-term pressure on NBA GMs to win big is enormous and that some GMs have shifted course to focus on risk assessment so that they can swing for the fences when necessary. Third, that NBA executives are feeling limitations in their ability to use analytics to gain an advantage during the draft process and that non-quantifiables such as work ethic and dedication remain undervalued assets.

Taken together, we’ve reached a point where we can officially declare that the honeymoon period is over for the cult of advanced statistics in basketball. ... The message from the 2011 Sloan Conference, then, wasn’t the same as previous years: It wasn’t a declaration of arrival, a celebration of newfound success or even an admission of early struggles. Rather, it leaned more towards a high school reunion, where the like-minded from around the country, now fully content and secure with their place at the table, gathered to swap stories and best practices in front of a rapidly growing crowd of followers, anxious to learn how they might grab their own seat.
 * kendall gill said something about how the key to defense in the NBA is the 2nd man? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 03:33, 15 March 2011 (UTC)

Havoc
Coach Smart's teams play a style of basketball known as "havoc". Smart described his "havoc" defensive philosophy during his introductory press conference as, "We are going to wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and their plan of attack." On the court, the "havoc" defensive mindset is visible through the heavy use of the full court press and pressing after made baskets to disrupt opponent's timing of offensive sets. In his second season, VCU led the Colonial Athletic Association in steals. Offensively, Shaka Smart-coached teams play uptempo and push the ball after misses and makes with what Smart describes as, "The freedom to make plays in the open court". From Wikipedia. --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 03:03, 19 March 2011 (UTC)

Princeton Offense

 * Princeton
 * Basketball's Princeton-Style Offense: A Simplified Approach for High School Coaches by Derek Sheridan (ISBN-10: 1930546920)
 * Northwestern under Bill Carmody
 * Georgetown under John Thompson III
 * Richmond?

Triangle Offense

 * Tex Winter designed for Phil Jackson Bulls & Lakers teams
 * The Triple Post Offense Book by Tex Winter (ASIN: B000A7OVR6)

Pick & Roll Offense

 * Jerry Sloan coached Utah Jazz Teams

statistics

 * "sparkplot: creating sparklines with matplotlib" by Grig Gheorghiu found via E.T. it has an example of sparklines used to quickly analyze a lakers season that i think would be helpful to have in a big quantity to evaluate teams.

APBRmetrics in the NBA

 * Google Book Search for "nba statistics" http://www.google.com/search?q=%22NBA%20statistics%22&tbs=bks:1 --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 07:48, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
 * The question of Lakers vs. Heat is a defining battle in the statistical revolution by C.A. Clark on Oct 28, 2010 8:30 AM PDT in Editorial
 * The basketball statistical revolution is coming. Slowly but surely, advanced statistics are creeping into the game. The signs are everywhere: John Hollinger is a prominent national basketball writer for ESPN, primarily on the basis of his statistical model for player evaluation, PER. Daryl Morey and Rich Cho are two of the youngest GMs in the league, and both have foundations less rooted in basketball than in statistics. More than half the league's teams employ at least one full-time analyst devoted to statistical work. Regardless of how you feel about advanced stats, it is impossible to ignore the growing impact they have on the modernizing NBA.
 * via The 10-man rotation, starring Tyrus Thomas dancin’ away via pingback from NBA Predictions 2010-11
 * Hollinger got a job w/Wizards. Go back and read early Baskteball Prospectuses? --108.200.241.51 09:14, 15 December 2012 (UTC)

cf.

 * The October 26th, 2010 version of Re-Booting Modeling Wins in the NBA: A Work in Progress … Notepad a document I created for notes on the How-to paper published that day.
 * My original write-up of an Independent Study I did as a Colgate University undergrad on the Determinants of Success in the NBA: Re-Booting Modeling Wins in the NBA: A Work in Progress …
 * Freedarko for a philosophical take on the question.

Resources

 * Basketball Prospectus
 * Knickerblogger.net Stats Page
 * Does anybody know of a real time sports scores/stats web service? (closed) - way to get text based box scores for data/archival purposes?

to-read

 * Second Wind by Bill Russell
 * Basketball on Paper
 * Wages & Wins
 * Academic articles from Wages of Wins
 * Dan Rosenbaum's NBA Blog
 * Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
 * Statistics in Sports: A Section of the American Statistical Association
 * Presentations from 2010 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SYMPOSIUM ON STATISTICS AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN SPORTS

to-do

 * fit this research into http://www.aeaweb.org/journal/jel_class_system.php
 * explore panels and papers from this conference http://www.sloansportsconference.com/panels-2/