User:Jaredscribe/Tesla master plan

The Tesla master plan is the mission statement of American electric vehicle and clean energy company Tesla Inc. to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy." For a $10 trillion investment, Musk claims the entire world can move wholesale to a renewable energy grid to power electric cars, planes, and ships, and he claims that it will happen "in your lifetime". It presents the business model of Tesla, Inc. as part of a strategic plan for a fossil-fuel phase-out leading to a renewable energy transition, in order to prevent civilizational collapse. The plan was first introduced in 2006, and updated in 2016 and 2023. A low-carbon economy.

As reviewed in Physics World, "Tesla’s plans are entirely feasible and bring hope and optimism – not just for those who are investors in the company – but for all of us who are, ultimately, investors in the Earth". The 2022 master plan part III outlines five steps we need to take to reach an all-electrical economy. First, we need to switch to renewable power, which would cut our use of fossil fuels by 35%. Second, move to electrically-powered vehicles (a 21% reduction). Third, install heat pumps (a 22% saving). Fourth, get industry to switch to “green” hydrogen for processing metals and other high-temperature operations (a 17% cut). Finally, sustainably fuel planes and boats (a 5% saving).

Achieving economies of scale with many production Gigafactories, which are now occupying "some serious worldwide real estate"

Part one (2006)
On August 2, 2006, it appeared as it appeared on the company website. Stated in the opening sentence:"The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution."Summarized thus:
 * 1) Build sports car
 * 2) Use that money to build an affordable car
 * 3) Use that money to build an even more affordable car
 * 4) While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Landfill-safe batteries
Landfill-safe batteries which can be sold to recycling companies at the end of their 100,000 mile design life.

Co-marketing photovoltaic cells
Photovoltaic cells to be provided by SolarCity, of which Musk is the principal financier. Generate enough energy for ~50 miles / day, allowing one who drives under 350 miles / week to become "carbon-negative" even push energy back onto the grid.

Part deux (2016)
Part deux was released in 2016, outlining a plan for vertical integrating the company. "'By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better'"

Integrating Energy Generation and Storage
Announcing acquisition/merger with SolarCity. Plan to "empower the individual as their own utility" by scaling Powerwall "thoughout the world".

Expand product line to all major forms of terrestrial transport
Announces a "compact SUV" and a pickup truck, to complete its offering to the consumer market.

Announces that the Model 3 will be its lowest-cost vehicle. That production volume will scale up "as quickly as possible", by refocusing Tesla engineering on designing the factory that makes the product. "'A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018'"For cargo, a semi-trailer truck.

For high-density urban-transport, a smaller autonomous bus with no center aisles, with acceleration and braking matched to thatof other vehicles, which will reduce inertial impedance to traffic flow.

Autonomous Self-Driving
Announces that all vehicles will have Tesla Autopilot with fail-operational capability.

Claims that when used correctly it is already safer than human driver. "We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is ha"ppening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day."

Says that when it becomes 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning, then the "beta" label will be removed.

Ride-sharing
Says that when self-driving is approved, owners will be able to "summon" their car from anywhere. This will allow them to rent their cars, driving down cost of ownership. Says that in some cities, Tesla will operate its own fleet and offer a ride-hailing service.

Analysis and criticisms
Bloomberg observes in July 2022 that although Tesla has become the world's most valuable car company, by a wide margin, since the plan was released, the company has fallen short or completely missed its original four goals. Autopian notes that the first master plan largely succeeded, but that the second plan's prediction of autonomous driving failed, as did similar forecasts made by other auto manufacturers.

"Although the truly low-cost Tesla has yet to arrive, that broadening of the product has, to a degree, occurred, and Tesla has single-handedly transformed the electric-vehicle industry by getting wealthy car owners to forgo their gasoline-powered luxury sports cars for Teslas."

Part three (2023)
Was announced in March 2022. In a company meeting in June 2022, Musk summarized:"That’s what Master Plan Part 3 is: How do you get to enough scale to actually shift the entire energy infrastructure of earth?"He announced 7 Feb 2023 that he would present a "the path to a fully sustainable energy future for earth" on 1 March.

Revealed at his annual investor day on March 1, he did not reveal a new car model. Vowed to half the costs of EV production. Musk said: “There is a clear path to a sustainable-energy Earth. It doesn’t require destroying natural habitats. It doesn’t require us to be austere and stop using electricity and be in the cold or anything.” He added, “In fact, you could support a civilization much bigger than Earth, much more than the 8 billion humans could actually be supported sustainably on Earth.”   A review in the Washington Post complains that no new car models were announced.

The plan

 * 1) Re-power existing grid with renewables - 24 TWh, 10TW (solar + wind), $.8T
 * 2) Switch to electric vehicles - 115 TWh (batteries and stationary storage, 4TW (solar + wind) $7.0T (investment)
 * 3) Switch to Heat pumps in homes, businesses, and industry.
 * 4) Electrify high temp heat delivery for industrial use.  48TWh (stationary storage), 6TW, $0.8T
 * 5) Sustainable fuel planes and boats.  44TWh, 4TW, $0.8T

Next generation vehicle platform
Acknowleged that as transition to clean energy results in increased demand for rare earth metals, the mining of these has environmental and health risks.

The next generation vehicle's battery will use no rare earth metals, and no silicon carbide.

Controllers and Electronics
Electronic fuses replace moving parts with solid state transistors. Allow software to do load shedding, software controlled retries, transient faults, monitoring. software-controlled hardware: context-awareness, context-specific behavior in hardware.

Replaced lead acid with Lithium-ion batteries which will last for the life of the car.

Low-voltage architecture. 48 volt electrical system will replace 12 volt design. Reduction in current allows smaller wires, smaller e-fuses, controllers, heat sinks. They welcome OEMs and suppliers to join them in this evolution.