User:Stevenarntson/group spaces/2009summeranalytical/group 1

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 * Borakim
 * JessicaRussell
 * Jasontraversie
 * Sandychao
 * Chad Hall

Overview

 * 1.summary

Overpopulation is a global issue. Every country, no matter how big or small, has their problems with packing too many people into too small of a space. It's like a family of six living in a house that was only built for a family of three or four. There are too many people living in too small of a house. Case in point...I live with my parents, sister, and her twin 15-month old girls. We live in a small house that was built in the early 20th century and when we first moved in, the house was just right for us. When my sister had her girls, that changed drastically. In the past year plus, our house has become more and more claustrophobic. We have so many toys in our small living room, that at times it's like walking through an obstacle course. Sometimes, it feels like I never get any peace and quiet. Anyway, imagine what it must feel like for people who live in cities like Calcutta, Beijing, or any of the enormously overcrowded cities throughout the world. Our report will explore five of the most heavily populated areas in the world and discuss the problems each region faces and what solutions they've discovered that truly work.


 * 2.reflective assessment


 * 1.successes


 * 2.failures


 * 3.future strategies

History
Global situation. Back to the past, there actually was a long period of time in which the earth's population had no growth. Until 1000 B.C.E; the world’s population was approximately 300 million only. Death rates were high and life expectancy was low because of poor nutrition and diseases. Until 1750, the world’s population started to grow very slowly and at which time global population was about 800 million. Plagues, famines, unsanitary living conditions, and general poverty at that time would be the big problems that caused high death rates. After 1750, the whole population grew substantially; by 1950 it had rapidly reached around 2.5 billion. Growth from 1950 to 1985 was even more dramatic so the human population was 5 billion in 1985. The world population had doubled in thirty-five years.

Starting in the middle of the eighteenth century, the death rate began to decease in the West. The decline in deaths occurred not only because the medical conditions had been improved but also the improvements in food availability, housing, water cleanliness, personal hygiene, and public sanitation. Later in the twentieth century, medical advances mainly controlled some diseases and mortality decline.

Western mortality decline was kind of slow; while Europe’s population kept increasing. The “surplus” European was able to move to other new areas like The United States, Canada, and Australia that were very sparsely populated by Aboriginal peoples because of the contagious diseases which brought by others from Europe. As the result, the world rapid population growth between 1950 and 1985, by 2000 global population was 6 billion and is projected to be 9 billion in 2050.

Africa
Africa may be one of the biggest continents on the planet but it only contains 11% of the world population at 841.4 million people as of 2008. Africa's birth rate is 38 to a l,000 people and its death rate is 14 to l,000 people. Every time those 38 people are born about half of them are dieing. And in 2006 the panel on growth on Africa says by 2050 that Africa's population will reach 1.7 billion people. I don't think we should be pointing fingers at Africa, there are other place in the world that need to more concern about their population.

In May 2008 They started the African Child Policy Forum. It's an organization for children's rights and welfare. The terms include 'infant mortality enrolled in school, a nutrition status and other social and economic indicators.'[] But not all countries in Africa have adopted this policy form yet. This policy also wanted the children to be able to express themselves. I think once this goes into place young boys and girls can be educated instead of girls becoming pregnant and boys going into crime.

The history of South Africa's population and immigration. From the late 1700 to the 1900’s the immigrants that came over were the British, Dutch, German, and French. The people who came over in the 17th, 18th and 19th century came to South Africa for crops, settling, and slave trade. But they say that South Africa’s population count was never accurate in the 1900’s and who knows before that as well. Today the immigrants that come over to Africa come from all over the world. As of 2007 in South Africa the races that are Africans make up 79.6% of the population with 38 million people. The white population is 7.9% with about 4.3 million people; The colored people make up 8.9% of the population with 4.2 million people. People of South African and India/Asian descent comprise 2.5% with 1.2 million people in South Africa. This makes 47 million people just alone in South Africa.

South Africa already has a death rate per year of the millions. By 2010 pbs says that 4 to 6 million of their people will die from HIV/Aids. This is a huge issue for South Africa because that is about 17% of South Africans that will die and half of their work force will be dead.'

As of 2008 for Egypt's total population is a 76.8 million people. In 2006 Egypt population was 76.2 million people and most of the population lives along the Nile river. The growth rate 2006 was 2%. In the next fifty years they expect Egypt population to grow to 138 million. In Egypt about 14.3 million females have already given birth by the age of 20, and 1/3 of those females have HIV. 'The number of women of childbearing age will continue to increase before it gets smaller.'

Nigeria is one of the biggest countries in Africa, in 1990 Nigeria's population was about 119 million with a growth rate of about 3.3%. Nigeria has the lowest and poorest income region in Africa, the people that live in this area are farmers who are also poorly educated. And now in 2008 their population is up to 151.5 million people. In 2008 the amount of people that was recorded for 2008 was 129.94 million.

The Problem
There are so many more problems than over population in Africa from not being educated, to children still working in factories that are extremely dangerous, to no birth control, gangs, crime, drugs, and war.

One of the biggest problems in Africa would have to be their HIV and Aids problem. The population of Africa is 841.4 million people in 2008, and each year 10 million people die from HIV and aids alone. Many of these people who have HIV and aids are 14 to 38 years old.

The young boys and girls of Africa either go in to crime related activities or end up prostitutes. They end up dying from HIV/aids or being killed. Half of the young girls in Africa have had at least one to two children by the time they reach the age of 20 years of age. These young girls are being used and abused by older men that are in there 20's all the way to the age of 40. And since the countries in Africa that are in poverty don't have the resources for birth control, these girls are getting HIV/Aids and other sexual diseases. Each year about 10 million people die from HIV/Aids and malaria each year. There is also a high percentage of girls who get pregnant die while giving birth since it's so hard on their bodies.

The places in Africa with a high population count are poverty-stricken counties. These countries have the higher population count because the families are having more children so that they don't have to hire people outside of their family to keep up with their farms when it comes to harvesting their crop.

The Solution
Africa will need to know things that will help with keeping their population at 11% of the world's population by learning about birth control. To have more education for the people of Africa from young children to adults. 'Africa also needs a green revolution, honest governments, better government policies and female education.

Let the younger girls of Africa be young girls and be able to grow up. The times have changed. We aren't in times were young girls are being married and having kids as soon as they start puberty. Girls that are the age of 14 all the way up to their 40's are having kids and that is what is increasing their country's population. At the same time disease is also getting to Africa's people. So I'm not sure if helping them is the answer. After all we are saying that the human race is overpopulating the world. And if we wanted to help them there are organizations out there that will help them with HIV/Aids such as the USAID, Oprah and many others.

China
China is such a big part on the planet with just over 1.3 billion people. As the world's population is approximately 6.7 billion, China represents a full 20% of the world's population so one in every five people on the planet is a resident of China. I was a resident of Hong Kong, China. Hong Kong is just a tiny point on the planet, our roads are narrow, our houses are small and crowed, our buildings are built very tall, and they are full of people walking on the street. Since Hong Kong is a part of China, people in China started to move over to Hong Kong for a better educational environment. I lived in Hong Kong and I can strongly feel how crowed and busy it is in this tiny city, so I truly think the one-child policy is quite successful at this point. If not for the policy, I couldn't even imagine how the planet would be able to function under the gigantic number of people.

The Problem
In 1950, the Chinese government attempted to prevent China from being overpopulated. The attempt at controlling the population did not succeed as no one followed the policy. In mid-1970, the Chinese government had a policy for all families in China, stating that each family or each couple could not have more than two children in urban areas and three to four in the rural areas.

The population rose incredibly in 1979, Deng Xiaoping of China established the one-child policy and the policy was able to control China's population growth. The one-child policy applied to all Chinese citizens living in rural and urban areas. As of 1986, the policy formally allowed two children per couple and three in special circumstances. Ethnic groups with small populations are not being confined with the one-child policy.

The Solution
Under the one-child policy, the Chinese government rewarded those who appreciated the policy. For instance, a family that was given a "one-child certificate" issued by the government was entitled to some cash bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care, and preferential housing assignments. As a whole, the rural population constitutes 60 percent of the population in China. Success or failure of controlling the problem of over-population depends highly on the rural population. On a lighter note the urban population tends to follow the one-child policy even without state intervention because of economic and time constrains.

Although the one child policy is very successful in controlling overpopulation in comparison to the 1960s and 1970s, the one-child policy degrades females in general. Within Chinese traditions, older generations favor males more than females. They see females as less able and the older generations are afraid that the females would eventually marry and move out of the family.

The Problem
As of July 2009, the estimated population in India has reached 1,166,079,217, ranking second highest in the world, behind China (CIA World Factbook). There are many factors of the growth of India's population, of which the most problematic are birth to death ratio, cultural expectancies, and education. Birth to death ratios in India as of 2009 are at 22 births per 1,000 people to 6 deaths per 1,000 people (CIA World Factbook). In order for a country to reach a zero growth rate, which in India's case would be the best possible way to combat this issue, the birth rates must match the death rates. But with a birth rate that is 3 times larger than the death rate, there is no escaping overpopulation. Along with that, the median age of Indian citizens is 25 for males, and 26 for females, with the average being 25, these are regarded culturally as the prime years to get married and start a family. Which brings us to our next topic, cultural expectancies.

Cultural expectancies are somewhat a sore subject for me. This one touches me personally and I will be voicing my own experiences here, many of which I have noticed are similar to those of my Indian friends. As a child of non-Westernized parents, I have noticed that in the past couple of years, ever since I have entered my mid 20's, there has been more pressure on me to find a husband and start a family. Very much like My Big Fat Greek Wedding, your mother starts nagging you about how she was married and has you when she was your age, aunts and uncles ask "Why don't you date that boy down the street? His parents are nice, he has money." This does not help our global situation at all! The pressure from families and culture can lead to couples who get together at an early age and thus have a larger window of prime birthing years which can lead to a high birth rate. Along with this is the view that male infants are more desirable than female infants. My best friend's family tried for years to have a male child, and only after 4 girls, did they succeed. In just that family alone, they tripled their numbers just to have a mutated fe"male" child. It is seen as a failure to the patriarchs of the Indian family to produce only female children. It is culturally viewed that female children cannot take care of their elderly parents as well as a male child could. It is also a source of pride to be able to produce a male child. People of the poorer communities see children as a source of income, much like the early Americans did. The more children you produce, the more workers you have to work your field. And because many of these children do not get the education they need to make conscious decisions about family planning and contraceptives they continue down a path that their parents and their grandparents went down, continuing to have many children to keep the family farm running.

The big topic here is sex, in India it is seen as one of the "four main goals of life." But failure to teach sexual education to the youth is what will lead this already grossly overpopulated country to its limit.

Solution
World Population Day 2009, the Health and Welfare Minister of India came out with a solution to India's growing population. "Bring electricity to every Indian village so that people would watch television until late at night and therefore be too tired to make babies." Sounds funny? It could be a solution. I believe the only way we can control India's population issue is to teach family planning, offer low priced contraceptives, or try a more extreme solution. Offer a cash reward to citizens who volunteer to become sterilized. It sounds horrible, but it would be strictly volunteer based and would be rewarded monetarily. Or offer a tax incentive to couples who refrain from having children. Image a tax break for not having a screaming child to take care of.

The problem
Unlike many other nations throughout the rest of the work, the problem in Europe isn't over-popoulation, but rather a declining population. Many couples in Western Europe are either declining to have children, or are unable to. In 1995, the members countries of the European Union exceeded the US population by 105 million. It is predicted that by 2050, the EU's population may end up by being lower than the United States by 20 Million. Case in point: In 2001, the population of Germany was recorded at 82 million. It is expected to decline from this figure to 65 million by 2050. This many not seem like much of a problem as overpopulation, but when you start talking about the economics of the problem, it becomes as serious as overpopulation.

This problem is more often felt in former Eastern Bloc countries like Poland and Germany, and in Italy where the population is decreasing, rather than increasing. This is mainly due in large part to the fact most of the populations in these countries are getting older and there aren't many couples who are having families.

In fact the average population increase in Europe is only .385%, according to a July 2009 estimate. While this doesn't seem like much, many of the smallest countries in Europe are seeing the greatest increase. For example, Luxembourg (surrounded by Germany, France, and Belgium) has the greatest increase in population at 1.172%. With a population of 491,775 (according to the same estimate) that's an increase of almost 58,000 people

The Solution
The only solution I can see to Europe's problem of population underpopulation is for some of the more populated countries to coax some of their immigrants to move back to their home countries, and for those countries to try and develop ways to improve their economies so they can better support their citizens.

The United States
The U.S. is the only major industrialized country still growing, and we show no signs of stopping. The census shows we grew by 13 percent between 1990 & 2000, and by 83 percent in the last 50 years! You can see evidence of the problem all around you. Vanishing open spaces, water, energy shortages, soil erosion, air pollution, overcrowded schools, urban sprawl, and traffic congestion. At 292 million Americans, we're already well over our carrying capacity, and Census projections say we could grow to over 400 million by 2050. That's another 100 million people to feed, clothe, educate, and house. NPG (Negative Population Growth) has surveyed scientists for over 30 years and asked "What's the optimum population size before you start exceeding an area's carrying capacity and harming the environment"? The scientific consensus is that 150-200 million is the ideal population size for the U.S. That's about the size of the U.S. 50 years ago. People need more land,other than just the land they're standing on. They need land for raising food, producing their oil and water, recreation, entertainment, shopping, transportation, and waste handling. Overpopulation isn't about how many people you can jam into a given area; it's about what the optimum population size is before you start destroying resources and quality of life. The U.S. is growing at about one percent per year. Although an increase of one percent may sound small, such a rate is monumental. When talking about a population the size of the United States. A one percent increase means 2.9 million new people in a year, and 29 million in a decade! Here are some statistics on over population in the United States and how they affect the rest of the world. Because Americans eat a diet heavy in beef and other animal products, U.S. per capita grain consumption is four times higher than that of developing countries. Americans constitute five percent of the world's population, but consume 25 percent of the world's energy. On average, one American consumes as much energy as 2 Japanese, 6 Mexicans, 13 Chinese, 31 Indians, 128 Bangladeshis, 307 Tanzanians, or 370 Ethiopians. The United States is also responsible for 22 percent of the world's industrial carbon dioxide emissions, the leading cause of global warming.

The Problem
The U.S. is the world's fast-growing industrialized country. We've grown 13 percent in the last ten years - and 83 percent since 1950! More people means more pollution, more sprawl, less green space, and even more demands on the earth's already overburdened resources. You can see evidence of the problem all around you-traffic congestion, overcrowded schools, urban sprawl, vanishing open spaces, water and energy shortages, and air pollution. The United States is overpopulated because it is depleting it's soil and water resources and contributing mightily to the destruction of global environmental systems. The United States poses the most serious threat of all. It has an enormous population, the third largest on Earth, more than a quarter of a billion people. Americans are also superconsumers, and use inefficient technologies to feed their appetites. Each person, on average, uses 11 kW of energy, that is twice as much as the average Japanese person, more than three times as much as the average Spaniard, and over 100 times as much as the average person living in Bangladesh. Clearly, achieving an average family size of 1.5 in the United States would benefit the world much more than a similar success in Bangladesh. In order for these other environmental issues to be resolved, the United States must initially handle the problem of overpopulation.

The Solution
A large part of the responsibility for solving the human dilemma rests on the wealthy countries, and especially on the United States. We are the archetype of a gigantic, overpopulated, overconsuming nation, one that many ill informed decision makers in poorer nations would like to emulate. Unless we demonstrate by example that we understand the horrible mistakes made on our way to overdevelopment, and that we intend on reversing them.

The first step, is for the United States to adopt a population policy designed to halt population growth and begin a gradual population decline. Such steps can be taken that would eventually reach optimum population size, since that optimum is far below 250 million. With a little leadership from say, the president who kept pointing out that patriotic Americans stopped at two children maximum. We could probably achieve "NPG" in the Untied Stats within a couple of decades.

Immigration has the greatest amount of influence on the rising population. If the current immigration policy is not changed, the population of our country will double within the lifetime of the average American child, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Americans would also have to recognize that for every immigrant that arrives in the United States who is not balanced by an emigrant, a birth must be forgone. We can never have a immigration policy until we have a population policy in place. What the mix of births and immigrants should be is a difficult question which may be solved by a public debate. The immigration issue is extremely complex and ethically difficult, but it must be faced. Equally daunting, after a decision on levels of immigration is made, is monitoring the flow and enforcing the quotas. Badly needed now is a wide ranging discussion first of population policy and then of immigration within the context of that policy.

Aside from decreasing immigration levels, the United States must also lower the birth rate. The need for a greater use of contraceptives is imperative for this decrease in child birth. Many large families are unable to support their children due to the rising American economy. So in order to achieve a stabilized population in the United States, new policies formed to reduce immigration and child birth must work cohesively.

Global Solutions
What has one region done that might benefit other regions?

India
"CIA World Factbook." Central Intelligence Agency. 21 Aug 2009. 24 Aug 2009 .

Europe
"Why we must go forth and multiply: PAUSE FOR THOUGHT: A society short of children is heading for trouble and Europe's declining populations require urgent attention, says Michael Prowse":[London edition] Prowse, Michael. Financial Times. London (UK):Jan 13, 2001. p. 22

"CIA World Factbook" Central Intelligence Agency. 21 Aug 2009. 24 Aug 2009 .

Africa
"The Baby Bonanza" JABI, SOMALIA, August 27th, 2009 

Panel on Population Growth and Human Welfare in Africa, 2006- 09 

The African Child Policy Forum. October 21 2008 

 & 



"People Statistics > African countries by population density > population (most recent) by country" Nation Master, 2005 

"Population Growth in Egypt, A Continuing Policy Challenge", Mona Khalifa, Julie DaVanzo, and David M. Adamson, 2000 

"Timeline: The Atlantic Slave Trade", Mystic Seaport, 1997 

South Africa's population, Septmeber 2007 

"AIDS Slows South Africa’s Population Growth", Friday, July 31, 2009 - Sunday, August 02, 2009 

"population", Copyright 1998, ThinkQuest team 16645 

"Population Growth Rate", U.S. Library of Congress 

"south Africa", PBS 